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In his inaugural issue, Next TMT Networks Editor Dan Jones takes a deep dive into the upcoming SpaceX IPO … and by extension, Starlink, one of the most disruptive forces to hit the telecom industry in decades. Here, Dan briefly summarizes his coverage alongside Next TMT co-founder and CEO Daniel Frankel.

Even trillionaires must abide by the laws of physics

The forthcoming SpaceX IPO, which will happen on June 12, is sending ripples all across the technology sector, but particularly in the nascent direct-to-device (D2D) satellite-to-phone communication market. Partly this is because SpaceX is expecting a valuation of between $1.75 billion and $2 trillion, which would make it one of the largest public offerings in history and likely catapult owner Elon Musk into trillionaire status.

Beyond that, the IPO will throw up a lot of questions about Starlink’s wider mobile ambitions. Although the massive number of Starlink satellites launched by SpaceX have put the Elon Musk ventures well in pole position in the low-earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellation race, which makes Starlink one of premier providers of fixed satellite broadband around much of the world. Starlink’s plans for providing D2D services are much more up in the air.

Courtesy of Ookla.

The underlying problem

Many industry commentators are looking for Starlink Mobile to ink a Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO) deal with the one of three major mobile network operators (MNOs) in the United States — AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon — which would allow the SpaceX operation to use 5G towers from one of the big MNOs to provide coverage in cities that aren’t suited to satellite communications. The company hasn’t announced any MVNO deal yet and even its existing D2D collaborator T-Mobile does not see a Starlink branded MVNO as a fit.

Naturally, SpaceX has told investors that it will challenge the operators all around the world with D2D mobile services from its 10,000-strong low-earth orbit satellite constellation.

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